2026 commercial property outlook: insights from JLL’s Chris Dibble

Commercial property is entering 2026 in a far more stable environment, relative to both recent years and the broader economic backdrop, but it is not a simple one.

Global volatility remains elevated, and conditions remain mixed across markets and sectors, underscoring the importance of selectivity and fundamentals.

To help investors navigate the year ahead, we asked Chris Dibble, Head of Research and Strategic Consulting at JLL New Zealand, for his perspective.

1.  Where are the most compelling opportunities emerging across commercial property in 2026?

Industrial Industrial continues to present strong risk-adjusted opportunities for 2026. Vacancy remains structurally tight across major markets, even as supply has edged up modestly from historic lows, supporting rental stability and long-term income durability

Opportunities are strongest in:

While economic conditions may see vacancy lift slightly, fundamentals remain supportive relative to long-term averages.

Retail Retail opportunities remain uneven but are becoming clearer as confidence improves and consumer spending stabilises. Performance continues to be polarised, with assets offering convenience, experience and strong fundamentals outperforming

The most compelling opportunities are in:

Office Office opportunities in 2026 are increasingly selective, with performance driven by asset quality, location and relevance rather than a broad-based recovery. The flight to quality remains firmly entrenched, with demand concentrated in high-quality, well-located, well-amenitised and sustainable buildings.

Opportunities are emerging across:

Markets with elevated vacancy, such as Wellington, continue to offer selective opportunities for well-capitalised investors with a longer-term outlook.

2. What are the key challenges the commercial property sector will need to navigate in 2026?

While sentiment is improving, several structural and cyclical challenges remain as the market moves through the next phase of recovery.

Key challenges include:

Successfully navigating these challenges will depend on active management, realistic pricing expectations and a clear focus on asset quality and long-term relevance.

3. What should current and prospective commercial property investors be most focused on in the year ahead?

As we start 2026, investors remain disciplined and increasingly selective, with a clear emphasis on resilience and long-term positioning rather than short-term cyclical gains.

Key focus areas include:

While global volatility may persist, commercial real estate’s income-producing characteristics and longer holding periods continue to support its role as a stabilising component within diversified investment portfolios.

Head here for more insights from JLL New Zealand.